The talk of physical gun confiscation turns pretty quickly to “kicking in doors would be a blood bath”. That’s not how to go about it, though, you can’t kick in 100 million doors, the logistics make it impossible and, more importantly, the PR would be terrible. After the first thousand or so, people would be expecting it. No, you do it the way the government does everything else, slow and boring.
First, guns are banned and buy back programs are set up. You’ll get a few million this way as people turn in old, useless guns or turn in their registered guns and hide the rest. Some will comply just because that’s the way people are.
Any firearms exempted from the ban, such as collector’s pieces, would have byzantine licensing requirements that nobody can meet.
After records are searched, outstanding guns will be traced to their likely owners and one of several methods employed. The obvious is a SWAT team shows up kicks in your door and arrests you. The draw back to this method is that it elicits a “fight or flight” response from the target making violence more likely. It seems preferable to me to show up with a SWAT team and politely, but firmly-like they did during Katrina-insist on searching the house and grounds. This gives the target time to think about the long term repercussions of a shoot out with law enforcement.
John Sutter has outlined a more likely method involving lots and lots of bureaucracy. In this method, you get a notice in the mail saying records suggest you have a gun and gives you a deadline to turn it in, the burden is on you to prove you don’t have one. In the mean time, Leviathan’s entire apparatus is aimed at you. While you’re in the local IRS office answering questions about your taxes for the last three years, the ATF is searching you property.
Along with direct action, law enforcement searches for any reason, including the catch-all “probable cause”, will lead to many more firearms being found. Got an old NRA sticker on your truck, or a Gadsden Flag? They’ll tear your house apart and ground penetrating radar will find your buried cache.
Occasional violent confrontations are actually good for PR, they will be portrayed as “fighting domestic terrorists”. You get a list of Ron Paul supporters, kick in their doors, shoot them, “find” some marijuana and maybe homemade IEDs and hold it up as a victory for Amuricuh. The 51% who vote progressive will cheer, and a surprising amount of “conservatives” will, too. They’re just keeping us safe, after all.
The final thing to consider is the economy. If the global markets suspect instability in the US, the ensuing sell off would send the economy into a nose dive. The government will do everything it can to prevent this, and that’s the strongest reason against kicking in doors, the image of stability must be maintained. The economy must be protected at all costs, tyranny ain’t cheap!
Over time, maybe a decade, the majority of the guns will be confiscated and the patriots who had them imprisoned. During that time, life goes on. People go to work, pay their taxes, take vacations, the internet is full of indignant bitching and the boiling point is never reached. The only change I would expect is for movie heroes stop using guns, unless they’re cops or soldiers fighting domestic terrorists.
So, that’s how I would come after guns. Slow and boring. Its worked pretty well for all of our other rights, why wouldn’t it work on the Second Amendment?